Household Surplus Lab
BLS data 2000–2024 · projected to 2026

What’s left, and what it becomes.

How much do households have left after paying for the essentials, and what would it grow into if they invested it? Built on 25 years of U.S. government survey data (2000–2024). Change the assumptions and watch the answer move.

1 · Set the rulesUse the numbered controls to choose the income groups, what counts as income, which costs are essential, and whether to add childcare.
2 · Read Fig. 1What each group has left each year after essentials. Below the dark $0 line, essentials cost more than the income coming in.
3 · Read Fig. 2What that surplus grows to if a share is invested every year. Hover or tap for definitions.
Lowest group · left in 2024?
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Highest group · left in 2024?
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Top portfolio · 2024?
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10% of positive surplus
Portfolio gap?
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Largest ÷ smallest portfolio

An illustrative model, not tax or investment advice.

Fig. 1

Money left after essentials?

Yearly pre-tax income excluding benefits, minus essential costs. Per person.

Nominal $QuintilesPer person
?
Show the numbers
Fig. 2

What investing it adds up to?

Portfolio balance from investing part of each year’s surplus since 2000.

S&P 50010% invested
Show the numbers

Method and definitions

What is real data, and what is a what-if

Real data. Every year from 2000 to 2024 uses that year’s published BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey table, which ranks U.S. households into five income groups (quintiles). From it come income before and after taxes, the income cut-offs between groups, household size, spending on six categories (including education), and benefit income. For the five quintiles, the model reproduces BLS’s averages exactly.

What-ifs. Anything finer than quintiles (deciles, the top 1%, custom splits) is estimated from a smooth income curve inside each quintile. Childcare, benefit amounts other than 100%, expense edits, the minimum tax and investing are scenarios you control.

Breaks in the dataBefore 2004, BLS income figures cover only households that fully reported their income; from 2004 BLS fills in missing income. From 2013, BLS estimates taxes with a tax model instead of asking households, which is why BLS after-tax income for the top group dips that year. By default this site uses CBO’s consistent federal income tax rates instead, so the dip disappears. To compare, turn on “After tax” and choose a method under 02 · Income concept. BLS doesn’t publish the top group’s 2023 public assistance figure, so 2022’s is used. BLS also published no after-tax income for 2024, because it didn’t update its tax model that year; the BLS-based tax methods use each group’s 2023 tax rate for 2024.
Projections · 2025–2026BLS hasn’t published household data for these years yet. They start from 2024 and grow every income and cost with consumer prices (CPI-U), so they show what happens if everything simply kept pace with inflation. The 2025 price average covers 11 months because BLS published no October 2025 index; 2026 covers January–August. The 2026 S&P 500 return is year to date through September 14. Projected years are shaded and dashed.

Definitions

  • Left after essentials (the “surplus”). Income under your settings minus the essential costs you selected, including childcare and any custom expense. Use “Edit expense amounts” to change the BLS figures.
  • Benefits & transfers. Social Security and pensions; public assistance, SSI and SNAP; unemployment, workers’ compensation and veterans’ benefits; regular support payments such as child support.
  • Education. BLS’s education spending: tuition, fees, textbooks, supplies and equipment for schools and colleges. It excludes student-loan payments and doesn’t count tax-funded public schooling. Off by default.
  • Happiness plateau line. $75,000 of yearly household income in 2008–09 dollars (Kahneman & Deaton, 2010), adjusted with CPI-U for each year: about $110,000 in 2024. A 2023 reanalysis found this plateau only for the least happy 15–20% of people, at about $100,000; for most people happiness keeps rising with income. It is a rough reference, not a threshold for any individual.
  • Childcare. Children × price per child, adjusted to each year with the day care and preschool price index.
  • Per person. The group’s average amount divided by its average household size, plus any children added.
  • Minimum tax (AMT). A simplified floor, not the statutory U.S. AMT.
  • Investing. Returns accrue on the prior balance; the year’s contribution is added at year-end. A shortfall contributes $0.

Expense amounts

Every amount starts as what households in that income group actually spent, according to BLS. Change anything to test your own assumptions. The charts update as you type, and edits are saved in the scenario link.

Scale a whole category

Raises or lowers a category for every group and every year. 100% is BLS as published. Scaling applies on top of any single-year edits below.

Edit a single year

Average yearly spending per household, in that year’s dollars. The small grey figure is the original amount (BLS, or the projection from 2024); highlighted boxes have been changed. Clear a box to restore it. Changes to 2024 carry into the 2025–2026 projections.

Add your own expense

A flat yearly cost for every household, such as phone and internet or student loans. Enter it in 2024 dollars; other years are adjusted with CPI-U.

Childcare is set in the sidebar, under 04.